地球物理学进展 ›› 2015, Vol. 30 ›› Issue (5): 1995-2006.doi: 10.6038/pg20150503

• 空间与固体地球物理 • 上一篇    下一篇

人工地震目录研究进展

李红1, 邓志辉3, 邢成起2, 严兴3, 马晓静4, 姜辉5   

  1. 1. 中国地震局地质研究所, 北京 100029;
    2. 北京市地震局, 北京 100080;
    3. 广东省地震局, 广州 510070;
    4. 石家庄经济学院, 石家庄 050031;
    5. 中国科学院地质与地球物理研究所, 北京 100029
  • 收稿日期:2015-02-10 修回日期:2015-06-20 出版日期:2015-10-20 发布日期:2015-08-29
  • 作者简介:李红,女,1981年生,山西文水人,在读博士研究生,中国地震局地壳应力研究所硕士毕业,北京市地震监测预报中心工程师,主要从事地震活动性分析及综合预测、构造应力应变场演化、地球动力学及地震活动数值模拟等研究工作. (E-mail: dzjlhong@163.com)
  • 基金资助:

    中国地震局震情跟踪定向课题(2015020106)资助.

Progress in research on synthetic earthquake catalogues

LI Hong1, DENG Zhi-hui3, XING Cheng-qi2, YAN Xing3, MA Xiao-jing4, JANG Hui5   

  1. 1. Institute of Geology, China Earthquake Administration, Beijing 100029, China;
    2. Earthquake Administration of Beijing Municipality, Beijing 100080, China;
    3. Earthquake Administration of Guangdong, Guangzhou 510070, China;
    4. Shijiazhuang University Of Economics, Shijiazhuang 050031, China;
    5. Institute of Geology and Geophysics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, China
  • Received:2015-02-10 Revised:2015-06-20 Online:2015-10-20 Published:2015-08-29

摘要:

基于地震目录的统计分析及由此衍生的地震复发周期与地震预测概率分析一直是地震活动性研究的重要部分,而人类有仪器记录的地震活动历史极其有限,因此采用其他方法建立人工地震目录进而研究地震活动特征与规律具有一定的理论意义.本文系统阐述了弹簧-滑块模型、细胞自动机模型、断层系统地震活动模型、有限元-滑块耦合模型、有限元模型等几种人工地震目录研究的理论模型与方法进展;归纳总结了不同模型在实现地震孕育、发生时不可忽视的关键问题:摩擦本构关系,并详细阐述了摩擦本构关系的进展及其区别;最后对有限元数值模拟人工地震目录研究时存在的问题及需要的进一步改进做了探讨.

Abstract:

Statistical analysis based on the earthquake catalogue and earthquake recurrence period and earthquake prediction probability analysis derived from it has always been an important part of the study on seismicity, but the recorded history of seismic activity is extremely limited, therefore it has a certain theoretical significance to use other methods to establish the artificial earthquake catalogue and do research in earthquake activity characteristics. This article elaborated several kinds of theoretical model,such as the spring-slide block model, the cellular automata model, fault system synthetic seismicity model finite element-block coupling model,finite element model and so on,and progress of methods in study of artificial earthquake catalogue; summarized the key problem can't be ignored in the realization of seismogenic, occurence with different models: friction constitutive relation, and its progress and differences in detail; Finally, problems in artificial earthquake catalogue research with finite element numerical simulation and further improvements need to do are discussed.

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