地球物理学进展 ›› 2016, Vol. 31 ›› Issue (6): 2370-2379.doi: 10.6038/pg20160603

• 空间与固体地球物理 • 上一篇    下一篇

使用新模型的巴颜喀拉块体东部的概率地震危险性分析

李昌珑, 徐伟进, 吴健, 高孟潭   

  1. 中国地震局地球物理研究所, 北京 100081
  • 收稿日期:2016-03-06 修回日期:2016-08-12 出版日期:2016-12-20 发布日期:2016-12-20
  • 作者简介:李昌珑,男,1989年生,中国地震局地球物理研究所助理研究员,从事地震活动性及地震危险性分析方法研究.(E-mail:changlongli@163.com)
  • 基金资助:

    基本科研业务专项“鄂尔多斯块体周缘时间相依的地震区划研究”(DQJB16B19)和地震行业专项“芦山7.0级地震孕育发生机理及其影响研究”(201408014)资助.

Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis of eastern Bayan Har Block with new models

LI Chang-long, XU Wei-jin, WU Jian, GAO Meng-tan   

  1. Institute of Geophysics, China Earthquake Administration, Beijing 100081, China
  • Received:2016-03-06 Revised:2016-08-12 Online:2016-12-20 Published:2016-12-20

摘要:

巴颜喀拉块体及周边近年强震活动频繁,对块体东部及周边地区进行新的概率地震危险性分析意义重大.本文对巴颜喀拉块体东部重新进行了概率地震危险性分析.使用的新模型和数据主要包括新的大地震发震构造的断层震源模型和时间相依的地震活动性模型.本文的研究表明,与使用潜在震源区模型相比,使用断层震源模型在近断层处的地震危险性较高.使用时间相依的地震活动性模型时,接近大地震复发期望时间的断层的地震危险性较高.巴颜喀拉块体东部2016-2065年地震危险性较高的地区包括磨西断裂、安宁河断裂、哈南-青山湾-稻畦子断裂等.2066-2115年地震危险性较高的地区包括鲜水河断裂炉霍段、折多塘段、安宁河断裂等.如果使用旧的时间独立的概率地震危险性分析模型,未来50年的地震危险性被低估的地区包括磨西断裂、安宁河断裂、哈南-青山湾-稻畦子断裂、德钦-中甸-大具断裂、东昆仑断裂等.未来50年的地震危险性被高估的地区有龙门山断裂、岷山断裂、虎牙断裂、鲜水河断裂炉霍段等.磨西断裂是使用新模型计算的未来50年巴颜喀拉块体东部地震危险性最高的地区.

Abstract:

Bayan Har Block shows active seismicity in recent years. It is important to make a new probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) in the east part of the block. This paper reevaluates probabilistic seismic hazard of Eastern Bayan Har Block. The models used include new models of fault source model and time-dependent seismicity model of major earthquake seismogenic structure. This paper shows seismic hazard near faults with fault source models is higher than that with potential seismic source model. Faults which are close to their expected recurrence time have high seismic hazard when using time-dependent seismicity models. High seismic hazard areas in Eastern Bayan Har Block from 2016 to 2065 include Moxi Fault, Anninghe Fault and Hanan-Qingshanwan-Daoqizi Fault. High seismic hazard areas in Eastern Bayan Har Block from 2066 to 2115 include Luhuo segment and Zheduotang segment of Xianshuihe Fault and Anninghe Fault. If using old time-independent PSHA models, areas with seismic hazard underestimated in the next 50 years include Moxi Fault, Anninghe Fault, Hanan-Qingshanwan-Daoqizi Fault, Deqin-Zhongdian-Daju Fault, East Kunlun Fault, and areas with seismic hazard overestimated include Longmenshan Fault, Minshan Fault, Huya Fault, Luding segment of Xianshuihe Fault. Moxi Fault is the area with highest seismic hazard with new models in East Bayan Har Block in the next 50 years.

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