地球物理学进展 ›› 2018, Vol. 33 ›› Issue (1): 10-18.doi: 10.6038/pg2018AA0663

• 固体地球物理及空间物理学(大气、行星、地球动力学、重磁电及地震学、地热学) • 上一篇    下一篇

气溶胶污染对夏季降水精细数值预报的影响研究

陈卫东1,2(),付丹红3,苗世光2,*(),周海4,崔方1   

  1. 1. 中国电力科学研究院,南京 210003
    2. 中国气象局北京城市气象研究所,北京 100089
    3. 中国科学院大气物理研究所,北京 100029
    4. 新能源与储能运行控制国家重点实验室(中国电力科学研究院),南京 210003
  • 收稿日期:2017-06-19 修回日期:2017-12-18 出版日期:2018-01-20 发布日期:2018-07-03
  • 通讯作者: 苗世光 E-mail:chenweidong@epri.sgcc.com;sgmiao@ium.cn
  • 作者简介:陈卫东,男,1989年生,江苏兴化人,硕士,主要从事城市气象和新能源气象研究. (E-mail: chenweidong@epri.sgcc.com)
  • 基金资助:
    国家国际科技合作专项(2015DFA20870);北京市科技计划课题(Z151100002115045);国家电网公司科技项目(NY71-16-032);国家自然科学基金项目(41605012)

Impacts of aerosols on the fine-scale numerical forecasting of summer precipitation

CHEN Wei-dong1,2(),FU Dan-hong3,MIAO Shi-guang2,*(),ZHOU Hai4,CUI Fang1   

  1. 1. China Electric Power Research Institute, Nanjing 210003, China
    2. Institute of Urban Meteorology, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100089, China
    3. Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, China
    4. State Key Laboratory of Operation and Control of Renewable Energy and Storage Systems (China Electric Power Research Institute), Nanjing 210003,China
  • Received:2017-06-19 Revised:2017-12-18 Online:2018-01-20 Published:2018-07-03
  • Contact: Shi-guang MIAO E-mail:chenweidong@epri.sgcc.com;sgmiao@ium.cn

摘要:

本文基于北京地区快速更新循环同化和预报系统(BJ-RUC),通过对北京2014年汛期的32次降水过程进行数值模拟和敏感性试验,研究了气溶胶污染引起的云滴数增加对北京夏季降水精细数值预报的影响.研究结果表明:BJ-RUC系统中默认的云滴数浓度偏低,采用根据环境模式预测结果计算的云滴数浓度后(BJ-RUC-Nc算例)预报效果更接近实况;气溶胶增多可以增加或减少降水.具体表现在:(1)2014年汛期北京地区降水主要集中在东北区域(平谷、密云、顺义)、城区次之,数值模式能较好的反映出降水的整体分布和趋势;(2)BJ-RUC-Nc对于小雨、中雨、暴雨的预报优于BJ-RUC,更接近观测;(3)气溶胶浓度增加,当水汽供应充足(不足)时,会促进(抑制)降水性粒子形成,降水效率提高(降低),降水增加(减少).

Abstract:

Thirty-two precipitation processes of Beijing in flood season of 2014 were numerical simulated and sensitively tested by using BeiJing Rapid Update Cycle of assimilation and forecast system (BJ-RUC) to study the influence of cloud droplets caused by aerosol pollution on the fine-scale numerical forecasting of summer precipitation in Beijing.The results show that the default concentration of cloud droplets in the BJ-RUC system is lower than the cloud droplet concentration calculated from the environmental model(BJ-RUC-Nc case) whose prediction results is closer to the actual situation; aerosol increasing can increase or decrease precipitation. Specific displays:(1)Precipitation is mainly concentrated in the northeast region (Pinggu, Miyun, Shunyi), followed by the urban area, and the numerical model can better reflect the overall distribution and trend of precipitation in flood season of 2014;(2)BJ-RUC-Nc for light rain, moderate rain and heavy rain forecast is better than that of BJ-RUC, closer to the observations; (3)When the water vapor supply is insufficient (insufficient), it will promote (suppress) the formation of precipitation particles, increase (decrease) the precipitation efficiency, and increase (decrease) the precipitation.

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