• 固体地球物理及空间物理学（大气、行星、地球动力学、重磁电及地震学、地热学） •

### 地震预测方法Ⅷ:地震活动性

1. 北京大学地球物理系,北京 100871
• 收稿日期:2017-11-20 修回日期:2018-08-29 出版日期:2018-10-20 发布日期:2019-01-11
• 通讯作者: 张琼 E-mail:zhaoyh@pku.edu.cn;zhangqiong0503@pku.edu.cn
• 作者简介:赵永红,博士, 教授,1982年毕业于北京大学地质系,主要从事地球动力学、实验岩石力学的教学和研究工作.
• 基金资助:
中国博士后科学基金资助项目(2018M630028);国家自然科学基金项目(41274094);国家自然科学基金项目(40821062);国家自然科学基金项目(40872133)

### Earthquake prediction Ⅷ: seismic activity method

ZHAO Yong-Hong(),XU An-dong,ZHANG Qiong()

1. Department of Geophysics,Peking University,Beijing 100871,China
• Received:2017-11-20 Revised:2018-08-29 Online:2018-10-20 Published:2019-01-11
• Contact: Qiong ZHANG E-mail:zhaoyh@pku.edu.cn;zhangqiong0503@pku.edu.cn

Abstract:

Seismic activity method is one of the earthquake prediction methods. The principle is to use relevant statistical methods dealing with the basic parameters and the relationship among these parameters. Through studying seismic activity characteristics such as frequency of earthquakes and the change of earthquake magnitude in a given region for a certain period, we may predict the three elements of the future earthquake. The three elements are the time, location and magnitude of the earthquake. The seismic activity method included many kinds according to the different statistical methods. This paper summarizes three representative methods, namely, picture informatics algorithm, seismic acceleration index algorithm and seismic dynamic gap method. The picture informatics algorithm also called the PI algorithm. The PI algorithm estimates the probability of future earthquakes on the medium and long term scale by analyzing the fluctuation of seismic activity. In practical applications, the input of the PI algorithm is the regional earthquake catalogue, and the output is the relative probability growth of the strong earthquake or the “hot spot” distribution. The seismic acceleration index algorithm also called the AI algorithm. According to the seismicity law in the past, before the great earthquake, small earthquakes may rapidly increase in epicenter region and neighboring areas. The AI is a parameter that can give a quantitative estimate of the relative enhancement or attenuation of seismicity before moderate and large earthquakes. The seismic dynamic gap method holds that the gaps between strong earthquake sources is the most likely region for future strong earthquakes. By summarizing the principle, characteristic, research progress, related cases and analyzing the application prospect of these three methods, it is not difficult for us to analyze that these methods require higher integrity of seismic records in the study area. Besides, it is very limited to predict the seismic information by these methods and its accuracy is not high.